Cereal Soup 2019
Just how grrrrrreat are they? The new reality for Kellogg’s is that being the best cereal company in the world no longer matters.
Tim Boyle/Getty Imagesis scheduled to release its first-quarter 2019 results on May 2. Wall Street and industry analysts are anxious for Kellogg’s to report its earnings, as the provider of cereals and other food items has beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, the average being 5.6 percent. Can Kellogg’s maintain the momentum? Kellogg’s New RealityKellogg’s became a company in 1898 after founder W.K. Kellogg and his brother, Dr. John Harvey Kellogg, accidentally flaked wheat berry—a mistake that would result in the recipe for Kellogg’s Corn Flakes. The company, which is headquartered in Battle Creek, Michigan, now operates in 180 countries, providing ready-to-eat cereals and other food products.
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Its 2018 reported net sales totaled $13.5 billion, a 5.39 percent increase from 2017.Kellogg’s created some of the most well-known in the world: Froot Loops, Frosted Flakes, Special K, Rice Krispies, Pop Tarts, Eggo Waffles, Nutri-Grain Bars and, of course, Kellogg’s Corn Flakes, arguably the most popular cereal ever created. To state that millions of children grew up with a Kellogg product in the home is an understatement. Kellogg’s is America’s and much of the world’s breakfast provider.Unfortunately for Kellogg’s, the brands which the company has relied on for more than 100 years have fallen out of favor with today’s more health-conscious consumer, resulting in decreased sales across Kellogg’s portfolio of products. Stated another way, the products that brought Kellogg’s to life as a company (cereal) now have the potential to severely weaken and even kill the company.
The new reality for Kellogg’s is that being the best cereal company in the world no longer matters. To survive and thrive, Kellogg’s must transform. No easy task. By the ’70s, Kellogg’s had expanded to Great Britain, Central America and Spain. This photo of a father shopping for Corn Flakes was taken at a Foodtown Supermarket in London on March 4, 1974. Evening Standard/Getty Images Kellogg’s Is TryingTo change the narrative of Kellogg’s from being a company that is struggling to a company with a future, Kellogg’s board of directors placed Steve Cahillane in the role of CEO in 2017. Cahillane was hired for the top job of the 113-year old cereal company and tasked with one mission: get the company growing again.
Cahillane is the former CEO of Nature’s Bounty, the health and wellness company. Prior to joining Kellogg’s, Cahillane held executive positions at Coca-Cola and Anheuser-Busch InBev. I believe Cahillane has the courage to ask hard questions at Kellogg’s, and I believe the board of directors will be supportive. However, it remains to be seen just how far Cahillane and the board are willing to go.I give credit to Cahillane as he has moved quickly since taking on the role of CEO. Bye-bye, Keebler Elves!
Kellogg’s is selling Keebler, along with its other cookie and fruit snacks brands, to the maker of Nutella for $1.3 billion in a deal expected to close by the end of July. Michael Smith/NewsmakersA less drastic option, and one I believe Kellogg’s should consider, is to take the cereal business private. Taking Kellogg’s cereal business private would save the company millions of dollars on securities filings, controls and accounting.
In addition, it would give Kellogg’s the ability to make changes and test new strategies away from the probing and demanding eyes of Wall Street and industry analysts. Kellogg’s could conduct extensive supply chain network optimization studies to design and implement a low-cost yet efficient supply chain, manufacturing and sourcing strategy capable of meeting demand cost-effectively.
The goal should be to maximize cash flow while minimizing capital investment and improving working capital. What Kellogg’s Must DoReshaping Kellogg’s portfolio to better align with consumer trends is a must-have.
In my role as a global consultant, I continuously find one truism in business—demand for a company’s products isn’t everything; it’s the only thing. If a brand isn’t selling, if demand is low for specific products or an entire category, the best move strategically is to divest the products and brands to become stronger as a company.Companies fail because their product portfolios are not set up for success. (Case in point once again, Campbell Soup, which foolishly veered into fresh food, even going so far as to own a carrot farm, only to see the company lose customers and billions in revenue.) The decisions made by Campbell’s CEO at the time, Denise Morrison, failed at every level to leverage Campbell’s differentiating capabilities or to provide the company with a strategic advantage. Under no circumstances can Kellogg’s afford to make such catastrophic mistakes. Instead, to last another 100 years and to remain relevant to consumers, I believe Kellogg’s will have to do the following: ► Place a Premium on Innovation and Strategic PartnershipsI’m confident that as CEO, Steve Cahillane is meeting and speaking with executives from many companies. However, I recommend that Cahillane meet with, founder of Tesla, and, CEO of Uber.
A strategy I use as a consultant is to visualize and analyze how CEOs from one company would run another company. For example, if Musk or Khosrowshahi, became the CEO of Kellogg’s, what would they see and what would they do? When I completed this exercise as part of a research project, I concluded that Musk, Khosrowshahi and Cahillane would mutually benefit from meeting. Tesla has the potential to apply its differentiating capabilities to food production and agriculture. Uber can leverage its platform to design revolutionary vehicles and business models to deliver food and groceries. Kellogg’s has differentiating capabilities in global food manufacturing.Other companies Cahillane should meet with includes Facebook, Instagram, Google, Microsoft, Schwan Foods, JBS and Fleat Networks. I also advise Cahillane to meet with the CEOs of the leading health care insurance providers to ascertain what Kellogg’s must do to become the go-to provider of healthy food and meals to insured consumers.
Insurance companies have come to the realization that nutrition, and not just pharmaceuticals, should be their focus. Kellogg’s has an opportunity to become a leader working with insurance companies to identify the optimal strategy for providing consumers with meals and other nutritional products. Steve Cahillane, CEO of the Kellogg Company, was hired in 2017 with a mission to get the company growing again. Craig Barritt/Getty Images for The Robin Hood FoundationThe bottom line is that Kellogg’s must think big.
I would make it mandatory that every executive and associate working at Kellogg’s be required to read Jeff Bezos’ in which Bezos outlines his philosophy regarding the importance that Amazon remain a “Day One” company, always focused on results rather than on the process. As stated by Bezos:The outside world can push you into Day 2 if you won’t or can’t embrace powerful trends quickly, if you fight them, you’re probably fighting the future.
Embrace them and you have a tailwind.I argue that Kellogg’s is a “Day Two” company losing relevance and is in decline. To survive, the company must place personnel into executive roles with the courage to embrace trends. Kellogg’s must also create a “Day One” culture, where associates and managers are focused on customers and outcomes and not ROI. Amazon is Amazon because of its ability to enter categories and reimagine sectors for over a decade. I believe Kellogg’s “” is to identify its 10-year strategy and Cahillane should take the lead. The vision I have for Kellogg’s 10 years into the future is a company that looks completely different than it does today. ► Capabilities-Driven M&ALike many companies, Kellogg’s has amassed a portfolio of products over the years driven by short-term financial thinking.
As performance and sales decreased from one year to the next, the company tried brute force strategies to fit around its portfolio of products with little success. When consumer trends shifted to healthy food choices with higher protein content and nutritional value, Kellogg’s acquired RXBAR. RXBAR has provided some value to Kellogg’s; however, acquiring and would have propelled Kellogg’s into a leading nutrition company with extensive revenue and expansion potential. Big difference.Kellogg’s should identify acquisitions that are aligned with its strategic capabilities, as well as make acquisitions of smaller companies with disruptive potential. I advise Kellogg’s to assess acquiring online brands focused on baby food, with Little Spoon, Raised Real and Yumi leading the list of candidates. Additional acquisition targets include online meal companies like Factor 75 and ICON Meals. Schwan Food should also be assessed for a possible acquisition due to its differentiating capabilities that can be scaled in meals and groceries.I also recommend that Kellogg’s assess acquiring Overstock.com and leveraging the platform as its e-commerce and cross-border commerce engine.
Overstock’s new corporate headquarters and campus located in Midvale, Utah (30 minutes from Park City) is an ideal base for Kellogg’s to locate all digital and supply chain functions. A challenge I’ve encountered with many of my clients located in the Midwest is that they cannot attract the best talent. For Kellogg’s, winning the war on talent is critical. Digital and supply chain operations located in the heart of a resort and entertainment mecca like Midvale would greatly help Kellogg’s recruitment efforts. Other options include opening an office in Seattle, Washington or Austin, Texas, as both cities are highly sought-after work locations. Kellogg’s $600 million acquisition of RXBAR in 2017 has provided some value to the cereal company but has yet to propel Kellogg’s into a leading nutrition brand. Astrid Stawiarz/Getty Images for Goop ► InnovationEstablished 100-year-old companies aren’t supposed to be able to innovate outside of their core competency, but Kellogg’s must find a way to do so.
The next big trend in food will be the ability of companies to food at a price point cheaper than going to a grocery store and buying the ingredients to cook a meal at home. Cereal demand in the U.S. Is falling, but a big spoonful of strategic innovation could keep Kellogg’s at the top of its game. Pixabay In Conclusion: Will Kellogg’s Succeed?To survive and thrive, Kellogg’s must transition from a “Day Two” company to a “Day One” company, willing to embrace and implement new trends. The fact that Kellogg’s is a company with a heavy focus on cereal and snacks doesn’t mean that Kellogg’s must only be a cereal and snack company in the future.Will the Kellogg Company succeed? Cereal created Kellogg’s. But unless the company can think much bigger than the breakfast aisle, cereal will ultimately kill Kellogg’s.( Full Disclosure: A s of the date this article was written, I do not have a financial or business relationship with any company I recommend or refer to in this article.
These are my opinions only. I have often written and spoken publicly about Kellogg’s since 2000, and I have been extensively quoted. I was contacted in 2017 by Kellogg’s seeking my opinion on the best brand for Kellogg’s to acquire.
I did not recommend RXBAR for a myriad of reasons, primarily, the difficulty of a family-run business coming up with products to expand into different categories. Instead, I recommended that Kellogg’s acquire Quest Nutrition, now one of the leading nutrition companies globally and the leader in the protein bar category. I also recommended Kellogg’s should acquire CytoSport, the maker of the leading protein shake, Muscle Milk. Kellogg’s was a client of Deloitte when I worked for Deloitte as a consultant, and I supported several sales engagements.).
Additions
- TONS more markings!
- Tribe markings!
- Graveyard added to Dark Isthmus (will do something later)
- Non-raptors cannot fall off of the floating tree, must teleport!
- Added tribestone in Grasslands, will move once Etrog exists. This tribestone must be unlocked by stepping onto it!
- Added Daily Tasks!
- You will no longer get notifications from any chat unless you are pinged via '@username'. You can ping other users by typing their username after the @ symbol
- Added Vsync option to the options menu
- Added more items to the shoreline collection to find!
Fixes
- Even LESS lag! Wowie zowie!
- Private channels are now considered global channels
- Fixed prey lock-on, now you will stay locked on even if the object moves out of range. Once you let go of lock on you will have to reenter range of the enemy to re-activate it.
- Jumping uses far less stamina- you should now get 50 jumps instead of 20.
- Flea notification from other people touching fleaweed is now gone
- Jumpspeed is now higher!
- Locked camera speed to minimum 1 so that new players werent coming in game with broken un-rotateable cameras
- Removed some terrain from the hole for the den in Forest Cliffs
- No more blank screen when searching for tribes at the Toucan
Beta Testers ONLY
- Second stage raptor now has adult's colors and one marking.
- Running raptor flight is smooth as butter
- Lift off of the ground much higher than before when initiating flight
- Sneak is disabled from Raptor
- Eating and 'sniff' animation added
- Lowering to ground in a hover doesn't lock flight animation
- Wattles and combs only show up if you choose them
- Added tutorial for Raptor Editor just to show that child stage is pure white to lessen confusion LATER
Known Issues
- Anyone in your tribe can edit tribe markings
- Raptors will pick one target to sniff and will be unable to sniff anything else
- Raptors can fly through objects, but not terrain
- Removed ability to delete local data because it was breaking the game